Redneck High

I had a very, very nice day in the NFL yesterday, thanks in large part to the Patriots dismantling of the Bills. Of the six bets I placed on that game, five were decided as winners by halftime. What a nice feeling that was.

Had it not been for that bizarro pinball-style field goal the Browns hit and the end of their game against Baltimore it would have been even better, as that ended up costing me a moneyline win on the underdog Ravens. Still, I'm not one to give the slightest hint of complaining after a 10-3 day. It was my best day of the season.

11/18 NFL Results

Browns at Ravens (ML) - Loss
Chiefs at Colts (Under 42) - Win
Panthers at Packers (-9.5) - Win
Patriots (-10 1H) at Bills - Win
Patriots (-15.5) at Bills - Win
Patriots (-3.5 1Q) at Bills - Win
Patriots (-6 2Q) at Bills - Win
Patriots (team Over 17 1H) at Bills - Win
Patriots (team Over 31) at Bills - Win
Redskins at Cowboys (-10) - Loss
Redskins at Cowboys (-7 2H) - Win
Saints at Texans (-1) - Win
Saints at Texans (Over 48) - Loss

(For final scores, see the season record page.)

Decided on a MNF angle

After looking at this matchup all day, I like the Titans. Denver's not a particularly good team — certainly not any better on average than Tennessee — and they're getting too much respect from linesmakers and bettors for their supposed home-field advantage. But that advantage just hasn't been there in recent years. In fact, since 2002 the Broncos are 15-25-2 against the spread as a home favorite. I like the Titans to not only cover, but win outright.

What I don't think this game will see will be a lot of points. These are two low-scoring teams with a tendency to keep the ball on the ground and the clock running. So I'll also take the Under.

ACTION: 11/19

Titans (+2.5) at Broncos
Titans (ML) at Broncos
Titans at Broncos (Under 38.5)

9:01pm
I don't like how this game is shaping up so far. I'm going to hedge a bit with a third-quarter Over 7 bet, which I think has a great shot at winning.

ACTION: 11/19

Titans at Broncos (Over 7 3Q)

See the Glossary/FAQ page for definitions of terms and numbers.

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