Redneck High

All eyes will be on the Oregon/Arizona game tonight, and I'm taking the Ducks at -10 here in a bet that they can avoid the ejector seat the No. 2 spot in the polls has become. But my big play, a 2-unit wager, is on the Mean Green of North Texas in their game against Arkansas State.

Now, I don't think there's much chance at all North Texas wins, and I kind of doubt they'll even cover the 16-point spread, but what I do think is that they'll score a fair amount. The only thing the Mean Green can do is pass the football, but they have a weak-ish offensive line, so teams have been able to pressure their QB for much of the season. Navy couldn't, and we all saw the fireworks there. Arkansas State is just as bad at putting pressure on the passer — Navy and Arky State are tied for 115th in the nation for sack defense.

Couple this with the fact that the North Texas defense is absolutely terrible, meaning likely quick drives for Arkansas State, and I like their chances for at least 4 touchdowns. That sold me on the North Texas team total Over 27.

It's a 2-unit bet, which is not common for me, so I'll be a little nervous watching this crap game. Y'all think good thoughts for me, and maybe UNT will hit that total by the end of the first half, so I can relax and enjoy watching the later Pac-10 matchup.

ACTION: 11/15

N. Texas (team Over 27) at Arkansas St.
Oregon (-10) at Arizona

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