Redneck High

The numbers say the Cowboys should roll all over the Bills, a team with a pitiful defense even when healthy (which they're not), but I'm not betting this game. There's a powerful long-recorded trend in the NFL against teams that have scored 30 or more while allowing 10 or less in consecutive games, and Dallas falls into that category. In situations where that trend applies, teams very rarely cover (I don't know the stats off the top of my head, but it's overwhelming).

What makes me wary is that this isn't just a baseless betting system, there's logic behind the trend. What it denotes is a team that's been playing at or near it's peak ability for a while, and that sort of performance is very difficult to maintain. When the wave breaks it tends to crash hard for one game.

So I'm not betting the Cowboys, and I sure as hell can't bet the crappy Bills. There is one prop bet tonight that I sort of like, though. A wager is available, paying +160, that the teams will combine for 4 or more field goals during the game (3.5 according to the bet, actually, but that just means there can be no pushes on this wager). I have a lean on this because, if the Cowboy offense falters a bit, it could happen in such a way that it peters out in the red zone, meaning field goal attempts. And the Buffalo offense is so rotten that they have to settle for kicks much of the time anyway.

10/08 Lean

Cowboys at Bills (Over 3.5 field goals in game, +160)

Yesterday was another nice day with NFL plays, going 6-2. And I got a split on my two third-quarter college plays.

10/07 NFL Results

Buccaneers at Colts (-10) - Win
Buccaneers at Colts (-3 2H) - Win
Cardinals at Rams (+3.5) - Win
Chargers (team Over 10 2H) at Broncos - Win
Jets at Giants (-3.5) - Win
Lions at Redskins (Under 45) - Win
Panthers at Saints (-3) - Loss
Ravens at 49ers (Over 17 2H) - Loss

10/07 College Results

New Mexico St. at Boise St. (-6.5 3Q) - Win
New Mexico St. at Boise St. (Over 14 3Q) - Loss

(For final scores, see the season record page.)

See the Glossary/FAQ page for definitions of terms and numbers.

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