Redneck High

It was sort of a rough day yesterday, with three games coming so close to going my way, and that would have made all the difference. Kansas State let the clock run inside the Colorado 1-yard-line, instead of pushing ahead for the score that would have won my second-half bet; Oklahoma gave up a late field goal, still beating Texas A&M, not not covering the spread; and Texas was content to grind runs on the ground for most of fourth quarter against Oklahoma State, so they fell just short of scoring the 41 I needed them to.

Those three wins-turned-into-losses accounted for about an 8-unit swing.

For today, I've got 4 NFL games bet (the bets were made in two batches, so I have slightly different pointspreads in each game), and I won't be adding more, unless something dramatic happens. Here's what I've got:

11/5 NFL ACTION

Broncos (+2.5 & +3) at Steelers

Browns at Chargers (-12.5 & -13)

Saints (-1 & +2) at Buccaneers

Vikings (-4.5 & -4) at 49ers

I've come to the conclusion that I've been overthinking my NFL plays, worrying too much about pointspreads and trying to figure out if those will be covered or not. In reality, pointspreads very rarely come into play in NFL bets. The team that wins the game almost always covers or was the underdog. I've read that pointspreads matter only about 18 percent of the time. So this week I just went down the matchups and picked out the handful of teams I felt most confident would win, and didn't worry about the points given or taken.

We'll see how that works out.

Sunday-night college football

I've got one half-unit play on tonight's Southern Mississippi/Memphis game, a teaser. Southern Miss should win easily, I just hope Memphis can score once or twice to help reach the total of 40 I need.

11/5 COLLEGE ACTION

Teaser: Southern Mississippi (pk) at Memphis & Over 40

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