Going for a middle; Gregg the Contrarian
The line on today's Iowa State/Texas game has crept up so that the Longhorns are now 25.5-point favorites. Since I already bet Texas at -21 earlier this week, now I'm playing Iowa State and taking those 25.5 points. This strategy is called a middle, and gives me a chance to win the bets both ways while limiting my potential loss.
ACTION
9/23 Iowa State (+25.5) at Texas, $21/$20
The way it works is this:
Texas wins by more than 26
I lose the Iowa State bet but win the Texas bet. Basically a break-even.
Texas wins by more than 21 but less than 26
I win both the Texas bet and the Iowa State bet. The best circumstance for me.
Iowa State wins, or loses by less than 21
I lose the Texas bet but win the Iowa State bet. Again basically a break-even.
My best guess is that Texas wins this game by a score of 42-17, a margin of 25 points, so I think I've got a decent shot at hitting both ends of this bet.
Gregg the Contrarian
A good friend of mine likes to bet football whenever he visits Las Vegas, but says it always seems to him like the only times he wins are when he bets the underdog and takes the points. For fun he's started making imaginary bets opposite me whenever I bet favorites, and he says he'd be up on the year in college doing that.
As a limitation Gregg has chosen to confine himself to only the same games I bet, meaning he can't choose to go against Texas A&M today, even though he feels like it'd be a good bet. Here are the lines he's tracking today:
Gregg's Contra-Steve imaginary bets
Iowa State (+21) at Texas
Notre Dame at Michigan State (+2.5)
UCLA at Washington (+3)
See the Glossary/FAQ page for definitions of terms and numbers.
Sep 24, 2006, 10:15am
Damn! I went 1 - 1 - 1. I thought Michigan State was in the bag, and had I made the Iowa State bet on game day that one would have been a winner. You did a great job winning both ways on Iowa State.
Sep 24, 2006, 10:32pm
It's sweet when you go for one of those middles and it works out. Of course it took me about three minutes trying to do the math in my head, subtracting the Iowas State score from Texas'. I need to keep a third-grader around to do that sort of thing for me.
Keep tracking the "only-taking-points plays." It'll be interesting to see how is shakes out.