Redneck High

The week started on a bummer note, as the dogass Steelers didn't score a single point after I'd picked them on Monday, but the omens were good Thursday night. After deciding late to take Georgia Tech and lay 16.5 points against Viriginia, I forecast the final score dead on. Makes a person feel real good when they do that.

9/21 RESULT

Virginia at Georgia Tech (-16.5) - Win, $20.40/$20

(For final scores, see the season record page.)

I won't make any bets on the Friday game, although I do lean slightly toward Nevada -7, but I put some cash down last night and tonight on a few games. Here's what I'm on this weekend:

ACTION

9/23 Iowa State at Texas (-21), $23.40/$20

9/23 Notre Dame (-2.5) at Michigan State, $22/$20

9/23 Oklahoma St. (pk) at Houston, $20.60/$20

9/23 UCLA (-3) at Washington, $22/$20

9/23 W. Virginia (-13.5, 1H) at E. Carolina, $22/20

9/24 Bengals (ML) at Steelers, $20/$22.40

Some notes on a few of the games:

Iowa State at Texas
The Longhorns have moved to a more rushing-focused offense lately, which I think is a wise move under the circumstances. The team has a freshman playing quarterback — he's good enough, but very inexperienced — but two extremely good running backs and an offensive line that can wear down opponents. Watch Jamaal Charles for a bit and you'll be reminded that explosive plays don't have to be passes, they can happen on rushes as well. I expect the Horns to wear down Iowa State as the game goes on, and win by between 24 and 27. I may shoot for a middle on this game (see explanation below).

Notre Dame at Michigan State
Notre Dame losing back-to-back games against schools from Michigan? And back-to-back years against Michigan State? I can't see Irish pride allowing it.

W. Virginia at E. Carolina
The Mountaineers are far and away the better team here — I really like watching Steve Slaton run, the dude looks like a waterbug skittering around — but they have a bad habit of losing interest late in games where they have a commanding lead, so I'm leary of laying 21 points on them for the game. A 2-thouchdown lead going into halftime seems the right way to play this one.

Bengals at Steelers
Cincy is actually the underdog here, but I don't think they should be. I know the game is in Pittsburgh, but the Bengals are for real this year. They were good in 2005, and have only improved. Pittsburgh…don't get me started on those sumbitches. I'm still bitter about Monday.

Would bet IF…

9/23 Iowa State (+27) at Texas
I've already got Texas at -21, so this would be looking to hit a middle. I expect Texas to win by between 24 and 27 points.

9/23 Oklahoma State at Houston, Over 56
Two offense-centric teams meeting in good weather, which suggests a shootout. The Over/Under is currently at 56.5. If it drops to 56 — 8 touchdowns with PATs — I'll take the over.

9/23 Colorado (+28) at Georgia
Colorado is terrible, but the Buffs' problem isn't defense, which is pretty darn good, but offense. I believe they've got a really good chance of staying within 4 touchdowns. The line is currently +27, so it needs to come up a little before I'll play.

9/24 Giants at Seahawks (-3)
Same thing as I said last week: Sooner or later Seattle's offense gets on track, and when that happens they turn into one of the NFL's very best. After two slow weeks, a second game in a row at home should kick start them. The line currently places the Seahawks as 3.5-point favorites. I really want to see it drop to 3 so I can play with less anxiety.

Leans

9/22 Northwestern at Nevada (-6.5)

9/23 Alabama (+2) at Arkansas

9/23 UTEP at New Mexico, Over 54

See the Glossary/FAQ page for definitions of terms and numbers.

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