Plays for 9/9
My bets are down for the weekend's games, and it sure would be nice to continue the season-opening hot streak. Here's what I'm on:
ACTION
Texas Tech (-7) at UTEP, 2-unit bet
Buffalo at Bowling Green (-13.5, 1H)
Clemson (-2.5) at Boston College
Georgia (-3) at South Carolina
Oregon (-4) at Fresno State
It hasn't escaped my notice that I took all favorites this week, and that's usually not a great thing, but I'm a believer in first making up my own mind how I expect a team to fare, and only then looking at the lines. It just so happens I agree with the oddsmakers on all these games. Here are some quick reasons why I bet the way I did:
Texas Tech (-7) at UTEP
UTEP is about two notches below Tech in overall level of talent — the Red Raiders are currently ranked 24th in the AP poll; figure UTEP would come in somewhere around 40 — and coach Mike Leach loves to bully teams that aren't up to Tech's level. Nothing makes him happier than running up the score. My expectation is for Texas Tech to win by 17-21 points, so I made this a 2-unit play.
Buffalo at Bowling Green (-13.5, 1H)
Buffalo may very well be one of the two or three worst teams in Division I college football. While Bowling Green is no powerhouse, they'll likely cover the game's 23.5-point spread easily. To protect myself against a lousy trash-time backdoor cover, though, I went with a first-half bet.
Clemson (-2.5) at Boston College
BC wants to bump off Clemson — and the Eagles have been known to play spoiler before, just ask a Notre Dame fan — but they'd have to play close to a perfect game for that to happen. I don't see it in the cards.
Georgia (-3) at South Carolina
Georgia's a far better team, but South Carolina has Steve Spurrier, who is sometimes able to convince his team they're magic. I'm a little uneasy betting against a Spurrier team, but I think that mystique is what has this line as tight as it is. I'll overlook the dude in the visor on the sideline and go with the team that could be the SEC champ.
Oregon (-4) at Fresno State
If this game were being played in Eugene, Ore., I don't believe the line would be nearly so close. The Fresno location has probably curved the line by a full touchdown. It's not a done deal the Ducks even win this game, but the line on what I consider a pretty darn good Oregon team looks to have value to me.
ADDENDUM, 11:4pm – Not five hours after I placed my bets, the line on the Oregon/Fresno State game had dropped to 3.5 points. Wish I had been a little more patient, so I could have gotten that number and bought the hook, go get it down to Oregon and 3 points. Ah, well. I still feel good about Oregon with the 4, but that 3 would have made me feel even better.
See the Glossary/FAQ page for definitions of terms and numbers.
Sep 9, 2006, 7:47am
I see that you are giving up the points on every game. I went to Vegas 3 consecutive Septembers in the 90s, playing blackjack at night and spending Saturday at the Sports Book cheering on my football bets. The first year, I lost big, in part perhaps because on all of my bets I took the favorite. The next two years, all of my bets (except on Texas) I took the points and ended up an overall winner. And in both of those years, my Texas bet was a loser (Louisville, Syracuse). I should have taken the points on the Texas games too. I haven't gambled on college football since, but I have wondered whether the dogs tend to have an overall winning percentage against the spread, if not on the scoreboard.
Sep 9, 2006, 10:57am
In the long term it generally works out to around 50 percent, because that's how the sportsbooks want it to be. As long as they can get half the people betting on either team, the book can't lose money. And they're really good at setting most lines in such a way to make that happen, even for games everyone knows will be a blowout — I don't care who it is, it's hard to bet on any team when you have to spot them 40 points.
But I usually do prefer to have a mix of favorites and underdogs, it just didn't work that way this week. As long as I don't find myself in a pattern of picking only favorites week after week, I'm not going to worry about it.
Sep 9, 2006, 11:13am
Gregg, out of curiousity I just grabbed a conference at random (Conference USA) and their total 2005 record against the spread was 68-62. That's close enough to make me think it all does balance out over the course of the season in the big picture.