Redneck High

In May of 2005 I made a smart bet in Las Vegas. While there celebrating a buddy's birthday — and donating some cash to the craps tables of the Plaza and El Cortez casinos, among many others — I thought the 15:1 odds on Texas to win the national championship looked appealing. I put a bit of cash on the Horns. I also placed several small bets for old college friends of mine, and mailed them the betting slips.That worked out very nicely, as the Longhorns' Rose Bowl win paid for a return Vegas trip for me, and beer and dinner for my buddies.The teams I think have the best chance to contend this year? Here they are:

• Ohio State (+730)
• Notre Dame (+684)
• Texas (+1137) - Such a loaded team, but they'll have a freshman quarterback. It's almost impossible to win the national championship with freshman under center.

Old standbys Florida (+1064), Florida State (+2085) and Miami (+1905) are always threats, but I don't think any of the three will be playing in the Fiesta Bowl this year. My longshot picks would be West Virginia (+705) and TCU (+12000), but I don't think anyone should place more than a token bet on either of those. It's sort of trendy to pick the Mountaineers to be in the title game, but I saw them play on weekday games quite a bit last season — they're inconsistent. I believe they'll lose at least one game they ought to win. The Frogs could very well run the table — if they get past Texas Tech in week 3 — but they pretty much have to do that to expect any chance at all at getting a BCS bid. The Mountain West conference doesn't get an automatic berth in a BCS game, so one loss takes TCU right out of the picture. What about USC (+1001)? Nah, the Trojans have lost too much, and too many other teams will be extra keyed up to beat them. Southern Cal will lose two or three games this year, I think. So no preseason prop bets for me this year. But it sure was fun looking at that Texas betting slip on the door of my fridge all during last season.

(All odds quoted here are from Pinnacle Sports, night of of Aug. 21)

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